Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.3
5366.3 miles North-East of Mesquite
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
5366.3 miles North-East of Mesquite
32.9713°N, 14.4306°W
Forecast Time Window
22nd of May 2026
May 22, 2026 06:51:21 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.3
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
558h 33m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
145.3 km
45.3 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
66.8 h
30.8 h over 36 h limit
Magnitude Error
0.02
Predicted M3.32 vs actual M3.3
Depth Error
16.2 km
Pred. 6.2 km vs actual 10.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
0392323f1eac5253322e7aded30af8548c794197664e00301d00c64f0fed3878
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260428_171727_pred-32.97--14.43-20260522T0651
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 29, 2026 00:17:30 PST
Source Batch
20260428_171727_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:03.176299+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.