Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
2.2 miles South-East of San Ramon
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
2.2 miles South-East of San Ramon
37.7500°N, 121.9621°W
Forecast Time Window
18th of May 2026
May 18, 2026 12:13:55 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
467h 56m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
15.5 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
3.5 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.68
Predicted M2.98 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
14.2 km
Pred. 5.3 km vs actual 8.9 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
84906b31d45071936adc056fc582d9be20f05553fdf5d779af306702500294e4
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260428_171727_pred-37.75--121.96-20260518T1213
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 29, 2026 00:17:30 PST
Source Batch
20260428_171727_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:03.176299+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.