Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
5.6 miles South-East of Santa Rosa
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
5.6 miles South-East of Santa Rosa
38.3711°N, 122.6593°W
Forecast Time Window
8th of June 2026
Jun 08, 2026 19:18:25 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
979h 0m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
53.3 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
6.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.60
Predicted M3.1 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
11.2 km
Pred. 6.2 km vs actual 5.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
3348c2ca2e751f5320631ef61ed83d974b17d124b37aab6ba12177a576529fed
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260428_171727_pred-38.37--122.66-20260608T1918
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 29, 2026 00:17:30 PST
Source Batch
20260428_171727_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:03.176299+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.