Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
8.2 miles South of Silver Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
8.2 miles South of Silver Springs
39.2836°N, 119.2085°W
Forecast Time Window
15th of May 2026
May 15, 2026 16:44:38 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
400h 27m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
17.3 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
13.1 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.79
Predicted M3.39 vs actual M2.6
Depth Error
16.5 km
Pred. 6.1 km vs actual 10.4 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
609a413850273e6b276c6e8acc795f4b14ad3fa4955bc0229509002aae50d5a9
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260428_171727_pred-39.28--119.21-20260515T1644
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 29, 2026 00:17:30 PST
Source Batch
20260428_171727_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:03.176299+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.