Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
30.1 miles East of Austin
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
30.1 miles East of Austin
39.3288°N, 116.5497°W
Forecast Time Window
22nd of May 2026
May 22, 2026 13:02:18 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
564h 44m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
150.6 km
50.5 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
30.3 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.89
Predicted M3.09 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
13.8 km
Pred. 6.9 km vs actual 6.9 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
5e68c40c4f3d909360fcaa3172949b8cf7897fe69b4c273e1843e7f8940e6e58
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260428_171727_pred-39.33--116.55-20260522T1302
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 29, 2026 00:17:30 PST
Source Batch
20260428_171727_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:03.176299+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.