Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
28.4 miles South-East of Calexico
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
28.4 miles South-East of Calexico
32.3151°N, 115.2719°W
Forecast Time Window
23rd of April 2026
Apr 23, 2026 12:03:26 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
8.4 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
32.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.60
Predicted M3.1 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
23.8 km
Pred. 9.1 km vs actual 14.7 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
1666435cd08b6e778a49c714454ec816c541e4e110034044ff4e9c4dadbc9aa9
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260428_171959_pred-32.32--115.27-20260423T1203
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 29, 2026 00:20:02 PST
Source Batch
20260428_171959_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:04.688717+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.