Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
11.2 miles South of Bombay Beach
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
11.2 miles South of Bombay Beach
33.1892°N, 115.7069°W
Forecast Time Window
16th of May 2026
May 16, 2026 18:19:43 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
3.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
425h 59m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
58.0 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
9.9 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.72
Predicted M3.22 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
12.6 km
Pred. 3.8 km vs actual 8.8 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
cd299be4a37b34bc99f9ab5fe2afa1845666890bfea4f5c5433434099d19927c
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260428_171959_pred-33.19--115.71-20260516T1819
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 29, 2026 00:20:02 PST
Source Batch
20260428_171959_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:04.688717+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.