Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
9.7 miles East of Forest Falls
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
9.7 miles East of Forest Falls
34.1160°N, 116.7524°W
Forecast Time Window
17th of May 2026
May 17, 2026 20:48:45 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
10.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
452h 28m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
15.6 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
5.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.28
Predicted M3.38 vs actual M2.1
- 0.28 over limit
Depth Error
22.8 km
Pred. 10.0 km vs actual 12.8 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
3f9e1cc15006edf53ff57e046757868cb7e16bfe6e10fa9c8ff8a718645b6e3d
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260428_171959_pred-34.12--116.75-20260517T2048
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 29, 2026 00:20:02 PST
Source Batch
20260428_171959_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:04.688717+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.