Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
8.6 miles North-West of Coalinga
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
8.6 miles North-West of Coalinga
36.2511°N, 120.4268°W
Forecast Time Window
13th of May 2026
May 13, 2026 17:09:09 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
352h 49m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
78.0 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
11.1 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.07
Predicted M3.37 vs actual M2.3
- 0.07 over limit
Depth Error
13.4 km
Pred. 6.2 km vs actual 7.2 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
da15e3db12f22184c068bf19631cab4edbca2da84aa9c08b118c20ad48be0275
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260428_171959_pred-36.25--120.43-20260513T1709
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 29, 2026 00:20:02 PST
Source Batch
20260428_171959_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:04.688717+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.