Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
8.6 miles East of Tracy
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
8.6 miles East of Tracy
37.7232°N, 121.2686°W
Forecast Time Window
24th of April 2026
Apr 24, 2026 08:48:36 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.5 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
57.1 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
16.6 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.92
Predicted M3.22 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
9.7 km
Pred. 5.5 km vs actual 4.2 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
d57e619f5fa68bcccbb2ba2f5d95b5e62249a7f26d32f68c192ad4ffc97fb10a
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260428_171959_pred-37.72--121.27-20260424T0848
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 29, 2026 00:20:02 PST
Source Batch
20260428_171959_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:04.688717+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.