Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
5.6 miles South-East of Santa Rosa
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
5.6 miles South-East of Santa Rosa
38.3711°N, 122.6593°W
Forecast Time Window
16th of May 2026
May 16, 2026 03:16:41 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
410h 56m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
31.7 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
0.6 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.60
Predicted M3.1 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
6.7 km
Pred. 6.2 km vs actual 0.5 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
0ff5195e472293e80dd3779dafc5cbd66e37d023b28872651bfd197ea9dd88a6
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260428_171959_pred-38.37--122.66-20260516T0316
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 29, 2026 00:20:02 PST
Source Batch
20260428_171959_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:04.688717+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.