Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
4.6 miles East of Coleville
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
4.6 miles East of Coleville
38.4797°N, 119.3615°W
Forecast Time Window
27th of April 2026
Apr 27, 2026 03:56:26 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
93.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
24.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.05
Predicted M2.95 vs actual M3.0
Depth Error
17.0 km
Pred. 6.2 km vs actual 10.8 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
6ca8a04ce1535946cbd0b2bd5eb45862380490735a6e5ce0ae62d88c7adb7b27
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260428_171959_pred-38.48--119.36-20260427T0356
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 29, 2026 00:20:02 PST
Source Batch
20260428_171959_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:04.688717+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.