Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
14.7 miles South-East of Silver Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
14.7 miles South-East of Silver Springs
39.2165°N, 119.0952°W
Forecast Time Window
23rd of April 2026
Apr 23, 2026 11:52:21 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.5 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
8.5 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
2.2 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.16
Predicted M3.16 vs actual M3.0
Depth Error
12.9 km
Pred. 7.5 km vs actual 5.4 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
f6445e5906236d9c9f8fc2fc43e0c37a91554c6011a03d100824e5c536fa1138
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260428_171959_pred-39.22--119.10-20260423T1152
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 29, 2026 00:20:02 PST
Source Batch
20260428_171959_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:04.688717+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.