Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.0
4.9 miles East of Coso
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
4.9 miles East of Coso
36.0243°N, 117.7739°W
Forecast Time Window
29th of April 2026
Apr 29, 2026 13:39:15 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
11h 1m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
20.1 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
30.3 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.10
Predicted M2.0 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
8.7 km
Pred. 6.7 km vs actual 2.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
5c97db663d4a3b01f2713b5a8c37bdf06df54520b082d7d579a701ecb9d64ddb
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260428_193747_pred-36.02--117.77-20260429T1339
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 29, 2026 02:37:50 PST
Source Batch
20260428_193747_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:06.055197+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.