Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.6
7.5 miles South-West of Badger
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
7.5 miles South-West of Badger
36.5689°N, 119.1419°W
Forecast Time Window
29th of April 2026
Apr 29, 2026 16:12:36 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.6
Predicted value
Focal Depth
0.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
13h 34m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
98.2 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
13.2 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.25
Predicted M2.65 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
22.1 km
Pred. 0.3 km vs actual 21.8 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
e7fa0dc96c73cc5cbc3c4b5ef8e7cba0a06ab7b614b38aec9dd8a9b37158c984
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260428_193747_pred-36.57--119.14-20260429T1612
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 29, 2026 02:37:50 PST
Source Batch
20260428_193747_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:06.055197+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.