Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
15.1 miles West of Madera
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
15.1 miles West of Madera
36.9621°N, 120.3345°W
Forecast Time Window
5th of May 2026
May 05, 2026 16:13:28 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
157h 35m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
89.1 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
11.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.14
Predicted M2.46 vs actual M2.6
Depth Error
11.7 km
Pred. 6.7 km vs actual 5.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
df2f9784e7d27d6f3491b24ce6199e51244f14ce2ec948000386c71c4db8dfd9
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260428_193747_pred-36.96--120.33-20260505T1613
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 29, 2026 02:37:50 PST
Source Batch
20260428_193747_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:06.055197+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.