Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
3.3 miles North-East of Merced
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
3.3 miles North-East of Merced
37.3408°N, 120.4462°W
Forecast Time Window
29th of April 2026
Apr 29, 2026 14:23:35 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
11h 45m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
65.0 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
14.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.13
Predicted M2.23 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
6.3 km
Pred. 6.7 km vs actual 0.4 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
451ec26772860969a2668d5514200dd44257ef9fc6a746d2a646862ca24fdc34
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260428_193747_pred-37.34--120.45-20260429T1423
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 29, 2026 02:37:50 PST
Source Batch
20260428_193747_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:06.055197+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.