Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.5
4.4 miles North of Round Mountain
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
4.4 miles North of Round Mountain
38.7686°N, 117.0956°W
Forecast Time Window
6th of May 2026
May 06, 2026 09:12:33 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
174h 34m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
61.3 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
30.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.18
Predicted M3.48 vs actual M3.3
Depth Error
14.5 km
Pred. 6.6 km vs actual 7.9 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
58aceb89fdee05fc9fc1fdf1ed18c9a85c9a3f27ee056ced137e6a57c6e56ff7
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260428_193747_pred-38.77--117.10-20260506T0912
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 29, 2026 02:37:50 PST
Source Batch
20260428_193747_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:06.055197+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.