Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.0
14.4 miles South-East of Silver Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
14.4 miles South-East of Silver Springs
39.2427°N, 119.0560°W
Forecast Time Window
29th of April 2026
Apr 29, 2026 05:40:09 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
3h 2m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
5.1 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
4.7 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.02
Predicted M2.02 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
14.6 km
Pred. 6.7 km vs actual 7.9 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
1e4761e82d3808ab2e1631da023b85a15157e41f0fb8582e1caaac65ffc361c3
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260428_193747_pred-39.24--119.06-20260429T0540
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 29, 2026 02:37:50 PST
Source Batch
20260428_193747_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:06.055197+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.