Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
10.7 miles South-East of Silver Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
10.7 miles South-East of Silver Springs
39.3186°N, 119.0620°W
Forecast Time Window
30th of April 2026
Apr 30, 2026 00:03:29 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
3.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
21h 25m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
4.1 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
3.3 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.26
Predicted M2.46 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
10.8 km
Pred. 3.9 km vs actual 6.9 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
813901769442d6d5acd3b2bba1cebbe22a967db78741ceaaec818d3fe20ec7a1
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260428_193747_pred-39.32--119.06-20260430T0003
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 29, 2026 02:37:50 PST
Source Batch
20260428_193747_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:06.055197+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.