Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
6.8 miles South-East of Silver Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
6.8 miles South-East of Silver Springs
39.3451°N, 119.1278°W
Forecast Time Window
5th of May 2026
May 05, 2026 14:23:18 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
155h 45m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
8.3 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
3.2 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.34
Predicted M2.54 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
14.4 km
Pred. 6.7 km vs actual 7.7 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
534ca25b04cf87f9a7e15a234426ec4420ff4172d49d10ebd30bbffcdf43d672
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260428_193747_pred-39.35--119.13-20260505T1423
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 29, 2026 02:37:50 PST
Source Batch
20260428_193747_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:06.055197+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.