Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
4.7 miles North of Monterey
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
4.7 miles North of Monterey
36.6681°N, 121.8939°W
Forecast Time Window
18th of May 2026
May 18, 2026 00:50:21 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.5 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
452h 28m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
50.3 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
18.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.38
Predicted M3.22 vs actual M3.6
Depth Error
15.4 km
Pred. 5.5 km vs actual 10.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
033cbd8ebe6b25021c72453669a15b9886c599ec47c7bb3f3f77400a26eb24e0
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260428_212208_pred-36.67--121.89-20260518T0050
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 29, 2026 04:22:11 PST
Source Batch
20260428_212208_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:07.486185+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.