Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
17.6 miles South-East of Belmont NV
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
17.6 miles South-East of Belmont NV
38.4798°N, 116.5593°W
Forecast Time Window
20th of May 2026
May 20, 2026 19:58:10 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
519h 35m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
4.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
13.1 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.95
Predicted M2.95 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
9.8 km
Pred. 6.2 km vs actual 3.6 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
939e0682b4531d1e688e1a8a68bcf9e9bcf8ac3cec77de5212b0a5084add5d31
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260428_212208_pred-38.48--116.56-20260520T1958
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 29, 2026 04:22:11 PST
Source Batch
20260428_212208_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:07.486185+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.