Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.8
6.5 miles South-East of Silver Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
6.5 miles South-East of Silver Springs
39.3394°N, 119.1396°W
Forecast Time Window
15th of May 2026
May 15, 2026 20:31:00 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.8
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
400h 8m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
8.9 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
16.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.23
Predicted M2.83 vs actual M2.6
Depth Error
20.0 km
Pred. 9.6 km vs actual 10.4 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
ce09e09d232d4925c557acf33925c7af7731c8bcbdc83371350ba2ad7e5c873a
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260428_212208_pred-39.34--119.14-20260515T2031
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 29, 2026 04:22:11 PST
Source Batch
20260428_212208_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:07.486185+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.