Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.8
10.7 miles North-East of Nevada City
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
10.7 miles North-East of Nevada City
39.3505°N, 120.8540°W
Forecast Time Window
22nd of May 2026
May 22, 2026 09:20:32 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.8
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
556h 58m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
60.4 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
10.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.35
Predicted M2.85 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
18.7 km
Pred. 6.3 km vs actual 12.4 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
1259b0e7c2050e5b50aaf056092ec5c127fe83b6b7c4f6127d9ca493b99665f2
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260428_212208_pred-39.35--120.85-20260522T0920
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 29, 2026 04:22:11 PST
Source Batch
20260428_212208_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:07.486185+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.