Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
45.9 miles West of Fort Bragg
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
45.9 miles West of Fort Bragg
39.3561°N, 124.6573°W
Forecast Time Window
23rd of May 2026
May 23, 2026 14:14:44 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
585h 52m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
325.7 km
225.7 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
5.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.80
Predicted M3.7 vs actual M2.9
Depth Error
12.3 km
Pred. 6.2 km vs actual 6.1 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
9f49bb61a5a4c7fbdf194f31e4bc7f5269858377d791583c27c65e2789e803dd
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260428_212208_pred-39.36--124.66-20260523T1414
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 29, 2026 04:22:11 PST
Source Batch
20260428_212208_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:07.486185+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.