Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M4.7
1.1 miles South-West of Ojai
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
1.1 miles South-West of Ojai
34.4373°N, 119.2573°W
Forecast Time Window
2nd of August 2026
Aug 02, 2026 19:17:36 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M4.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
2294h 12m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
52.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
35.9 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
2.32
Predicted M4.72 vs actual M2.4
- 1.32 over limit
Depth Error
19.5 km
Pred. 7.7 km vs actual 11.8 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
1b113968773e7687bcbcec596f05348a001d0d4dec7a6ef6b91da96bfbb7b481
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260428_220435_pred-34.44--119.26-20260802T1917
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 29, 2026 05:04:38 PST
Source Batch
20260428_220435_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:08.931141+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.