Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
16.8 miles South-West of Modesto
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
16.8 miles South-West of Modesto
37.4434°N, 121.1778°W
Forecast Time Window
3rd of May 2026
May 03, 2026 07:58:49 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.5 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
96h 7m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
39.2 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
8.5 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.17
Predicted M2.23 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
10.5 km
Pred. 7.5 km vs actual 3.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
a95869c2fa58dab261359c5fc3666e3c061acfc6d291916d2a6bb7778dbe77a4
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260429_005057_pred-37.44--121.18-20260503T0758
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 29, 2026 07:51:00 PST
Source Batch
20260429_005057_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:33.661807+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.