Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
8.6 miles South-East of Silver Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
8.6 miles South-East of Silver Springs
39.2875°N, 119.1649°W
Forecast Time Window
6th of May 2026
May 06, 2026 10:03:40 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
170h 12m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
5.6 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
1.2 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.05
Predicted M2.55 vs actual M2.6
Depth Error
14.7 km
Pred. 4.3 km vs actual 10.4 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
40af4976864022f9f1810f0b0c7e593ea6f70b5de5b46d0d070e8d37cf99ac67
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260429_005057_pred-39.29--119.16-20260506T1003
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 29, 2026 07:51:00 PST
Source Batch
20260429_005057_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:33.661807+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.