Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
9.2 miles East of Tracy
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
9.2 miles East of Tracy
37.7304°N, 121.2579°W
Forecast Time Window
18th of May 2026
May 18, 2026 00:50:21 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.5 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
447h 14m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
56.9 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
14.9 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.92
Predicted M3.22 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
14.3 km
Pred. 5.5 km vs actual 8.9 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
febde961992fc516635d8f87d366d77cb39df9d994bb219566f30363affae3a2
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260429_023519_pred-37.73--121.26-20260518T0050
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 29, 2026 09:35:22 PST
Source Batch
20260429_023519_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:35.020131+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.