Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.8
5.6 miles South-East of Silver Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
5.6 miles South-East of Silver Springs
39.3633°N, 119.1396°W
Forecast Time Window
15th of May 2026
May 15, 2026 20:31:00 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.8
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
394h 55m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
6.7 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
16.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.23
Predicted M2.83 vs actual M2.6
Depth Error
20.0 km
Pred. 9.6 km vs actual 10.4 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
040f7e562f5246a60a020261c0b7ece238630527954665efbd3cf48f88d009bc
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260429_023519_pred-39.36--119.14-20260515T2031
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 29, 2026 09:35:22 PST
Source Batch
20260429_023519_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:35.020131+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.