Permanent Prediction Record
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Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M5.4
3.5 miles North-West of Chester
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
3.5 miles North-West of Chester
40.3584°N, 121.2585°W
Forecast Time Window
22nd of May 2026
May 22, 2026 13:57:38 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M5.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
555h 39m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
141.1 km
41.1 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
5.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
2.20
Predicted M5.4 vs actual M3.2
- 1.20 over limit
Depth Error
24.0 km
Pred. 6.8 km vs actual 17.2 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
79d19cf0d4c10cd1215bc6fd1dfd630147b43174ed58c3158b410bca26af1831
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260429_031745_pred-40.36--121.26-20260522T1357
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 29, 2026 10:17:48 PST
Source Batch
20260429_031745_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:36.508662+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.