Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
3.0 miles South-West of Calipatria
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
3.0 miles South-West of Calipatria
33.1075°N, 115.5618°W
Forecast Time Window
30th of April 2026
Apr 30, 2026 11:27:44 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
22h 46m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
85.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
29.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.05
Predicted M2.15 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
16.7 km
Pred. 6.4 km vs actual 10.3 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
a371d9886903f02012719682aefe21bcf7139c4b67de015aa7a60eba6a3bbc5c
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260429_054117_pred-33.11--115.56-20260430T1127
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 29, 2026 12:41:20 PST
Source Batch
20260429_054117_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:37.594505+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.