Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
7.2 miles South of Jolon
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
7.2 miles South of Jolon
35.8666°N, 121.1793°W
Forecast Time Window
3rd of May 2026
May 03, 2026 07:58:49 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.5 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
91h 17m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
81.7 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
9.1 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.37
Predicted M2.23 vs actual M2.6
Depth Error
8.1 km
Pred. 7.5 km vs actual 0.6 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
a05ebad618825701420bf3fa810e824368e0e88276d0b5eac8d5c236f3757170
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260429_054117_pred-35.87--121.18-20260503T0758
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 29, 2026 12:41:20 PST
Source Batch
20260429_054117_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:37.594505+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.