Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
4.0 miles West of Daly City
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
4.0 miles West of Daly City
37.7023°N, 122.5403°W
Forecast Time Window
6th of May 2026
May 06, 2026 05:04:17 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
160h 22m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
13.0 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
5.7 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.41
Predicted M2.71 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
15.8 km
Pred. 6.4 km vs actual 9.4 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
151db2c6abf276e0efb67efd3f74845019da01167dcbda4145ebaecfa6c4641e
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260429_054117_pred-37.70--122.54-20260506T0504
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 29, 2026 12:41:20 PST
Source Batch
20260429_054117_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:37.594505+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.