Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.3
5.2 miles South of Lee Vining
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
5.2 miles South of Lee Vining
37.8821°N, 119.1151°W
Forecast Time Window
30th of April 2026
Apr 30, 2026 16:12:35 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.3
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
27h 31m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
159.5 km
59.5 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
4.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.23
Predicted M2.27 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
14.5 km
Pred. 6.4 km vs actual 8.1 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
25bf2783c8cb82058eb5fdec6378ec6f67112be64d1748c93dab73e5d5b71664
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260429_054117_pred-37.88--119.12-20260430T1612
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 29, 2026 12:41:20 PST
Source Batch
20260429_054117_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:37.594505+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.