Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.0
15.0 miles North-East of Somerset
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
15.0 miles North-East of Somerset
38.7255°N, 120.4137°W
Forecast Time Window
1st of May 2026
May 01, 2026 01:09:32 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
36h 28m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
132.8 km
32.9 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
8.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.01
Predicted M2.01 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
12.8 km
Pred. 7.1 km vs actual 5.7 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
5713a4bc08a0448b2150a6d9c9a75e032f64d3dd6f9566ba1b155d3521d6ab2f
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260429_054117_pred-38.73--120.41-20260501T0109
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 29, 2026 12:41:20 PST
Source Batch
20260429_054117_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:37.594505+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.