Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
14.9 miles South-East of Silver Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
14.9 miles South-East of Silver Springs
39.2330°N, 119.0583°W
Forecast Time Window
29th of April 2026
Apr 29, 2026 22:08:16 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
9h 26m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
8.4 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
1.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.29
Predicted M2.49 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
13.3 km
Pred. 6.4 km vs actual 6.9 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
4d306189a8845084a085ba2ae8c1ed7e65bdaaa1eeb1fa7fa7dec0b563da0f3c
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260429_054117_pred-39.23--119.06-20260429T2208
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 29, 2026 12:41:20 PST
Source Batch
20260429_054117_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:37.594505+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.