Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.3
11.0 miles South-East of Silver Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
11.0 miles South-East of Silver Springs
39.2561°N, 119.1469°W
Forecast Time Window
30th of April 2026
Apr 30, 2026 20:20:59 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.3
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
31h 39m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
9.7 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
12.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.50
Predicted M3.3 vs actual M2.8
Depth Error
16.4 km
Pred. 6.4 km vs actual 10.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
b06aa300a245bf6309cdfbab512817c4fa16248249d67f636be0792b5303543f
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260429_054117_pred-39.26--119.15-20260430T2020
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 29, 2026 12:41:20 PST
Source Batch
20260429_054117_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:37.594505+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.