Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.3
6.6 miles South-East of Silver Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
6.6 miles South-East of Silver Springs
39.3164°N, 119.1736°W
Forecast Time Window
5th of May 2026
May 05, 2026 21:57:54 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.3
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
153h 16m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
7.5 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
7.3 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.04
Predicted M2.34 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
14.4 km
Pred. 6.0 km vs actual 8.4 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
ff8b2d98f8902b907e78acf5a7529dcd2590b1fb40b1fe69f7282d841e5ed36a
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260429_054117_pred-39.32--119.17-20260505T2157
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 29, 2026 12:41:20 PST
Source Batch
20260429_054117_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:37.594505+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.