Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.8
5.7 miles South-East of Silver Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
5.7 miles South-East of Silver Springs
39.3320°N, 119.1714°W
Forecast Time Window
6th of May 2026
May 06, 2026 08:16:31 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.8
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
163h 35m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
7.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
3.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.21
Predicted M2.81 vs actual M2.6
Depth Error
16.8 km
Pred. 6.4 km vs actual 10.4 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
de15c6c7495c960241f76f1afbf72a7be97a97778b64daf9f15a58d41765c50e
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260429_054117_pred-39.33--119.17-20260506T0816
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 29, 2026 12:41:20 PST
Source Batch
20260429_054117_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:37.594505+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.