Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
6.7 miles North-East of Silver Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
6.7 miles North-East of Silver Springs
39.4529°N, 119.1289°W
Forecast Time Window
6th of May 2026
May 06, 2026 08:25:36 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
163h 44m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
19.1 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
4.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.16
Predicted M3.24 vs actual M3.4
Depth Error
10.6 km
Pred. 5.6 km vs actual 5.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
53a95b681a59544e643e539447f167e3b6845c41bda485ef6711cfdacd475fc6
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260429_054117_pred-39.45--119.13-20260506T0825
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 29, 2026 12:41:20 PST
Source Batch
20260429_054117_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:37.594505+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.