Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
27.8 miles South-East of Calexico
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
27.8 miles South-East of Calexico
32.3384°N, 115.2436°W
Forecast Time Window
17th of May 2026
May 17, 2026 04:05:10 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
421h 39m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
102.4 km
2.4 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
27.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.10
Predicted M3.1 vs actual M3.0
Depth Error
14.1 km
Pred. 9.1 km vs actual 5.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
ebb7de1abbf1d6a3edfee4c83839cd8a0b713772784899b30244c409188fd024
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260429_072527_pred-32.34--115.24-20260517T0405
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 29, 2026 14:25:30 PST
Source Batch
20260429_072527_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:38.968288+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.