Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
6.9 miles South-East of Silver Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
6.9 miles South-East of Silver Springs
39.3170°N, 119.1625°W
Forecast Time Window
15th of May 2026
May 15, 2026 16:44:38 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
386h 19m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
12.0 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
13.1 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.79
Predicted M3.39 vs actual M2.6
Depth Error
16.5 km
Pred. 6.1 km vs actual 10.4 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
f685fb2b4493e86b0865beca10e7f73f0f55c0fade86ec12d10ec27d1387b065
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260429_072527_pred-39.32--119.16-20260515T1644
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 29, 2026 14:25:30 PST
Source Batch
20260429_072527_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:38.968288+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.