Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M5.4
0.6 miles South-West of Chester
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
0.6 miles South-West of Chester
40.3061°N, 121.2412°W
Forecast Time Window
22nd of May 2026
May 22, 2026 13:57:38 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M5.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
550h 49m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
135.7 km
35.7 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
5.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
2.20
Predicted M5.4 vs actual M3.2
- 1.20 over limit
Depth Error
24.0 km
Pred. 6.8 km vs actual 17.2 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
2ce69c49459e1d72a9f9f8b9696fb3635c10713efba1ac0c0aa7a619c285b1c0
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260429_080804_pred-40.31--121.24-20260522T1357
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 29, 2026 15:08:07 PST
Source Batch
20260429_080804_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:40.437086+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.