Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.0
12.5 miles East of Coso
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
12.5 miles East of Coso
36.0331°N, 117.6387°W
Forecast Time Window
30th of April 2026
Apr 30, 2026 06:17:26 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
12h 30m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
31.9 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
13.6 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.07
Predicted M2.03 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
7.4 km
Pred. 5.4 km vs actual 2.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
fcc9e72363638fd14e51ff6712a03d0cb4486ef779ff2d3f8b20bb25eb81b014
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260429_104707_pred-36.03--117.64-20260430T0617
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 29, 2026 17:47:10 PST
Source Batch
20260429_104707_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:41.547701+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.