Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
8.9 miles North of Coaldale Junction
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
8.9 miles North of Coaldale Junction
38.1434°N, 117.8752°W
Forecast Time Window
2nd of May 2026
May 02, 2026 08:11:38 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
62h 24m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
4.7 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
33.7 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.31
Predicted M2.51 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
15.2 km
Pred. 5.7 km vs actual 9.5 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
da05080b8a8bc1b8ec4fa634b7f52a4b303ef2b54036f2e6a2314d0d4785dce6
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260429_104707_pred-38.14--117.88-20260502T0811
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 29, 2026 17:47:10 PST
Source Batch
20260429_104707_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:41.547701+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.