Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
6.2 miles North-East of Geyserville
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
6.2 miles North-East of Geyserville
38.7591°N, 122.7998°W
Forecast Time Window
2nd of May 2026
May 02, 2026 03:29:15 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
57h 42m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
4.2 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
16.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.41
Predicted M2.51 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
8.5 km
Pred. 5.8 km vs actual 2.7 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
cd281f5ae95c33db80f8295a36dabaccd5ac9dbff05a752bfc2e5239e417543c
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260429_104707_pred-38.76--122.80-20260502T0329
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 29, 2026 17:47:10 PST
Source Batch
20260429_104707_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:41.547701+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.