Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.3
8.0 miles South-West of Clear Lake
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
8.0 miles South-West of Clear Lake
38.9701°N, 122.8813°W
Forecast Time Window
4th of May 2026
May 04, 2026 09:34:44 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.3
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
111h 47m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
43.2 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
2.2 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.25
Predicted M2.25 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
15.9 km
Pred. 7.7 km vs actual 8.2 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
1c4c6303d638dd1243fff6edb0426e5f77adb6756ffcca6994dc9eac4ee1ed4d
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260429_104707_pred-38.97--122.88-20260504T0934
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 29, 2026 17:47:10 PST
Source Batch
20260429_104707_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:41.547701+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.