Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.6
13.5 miles South-East of Silver Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
13.5 miles South-East of Silver Springs
39.2291°N, 119.1128°W
Forecast Time Window
30th of April 2026
Apr 30, 2026 07:15:54 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.6
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
13h 28m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
9.7 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
4.1 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.08
Predicted M2.58 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
13.9 km
Pred. 5.8 km vs actual 8.1 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
e9d2d0ea7b8662b321a5bff0dcbc322486317050fe384ef46e9c8f100d86ffe0
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260429_104707_pred-39.23--119.11-20260430T0715
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 29, 2026 17:47:10 PST
Source Batch
20260429_104707_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:41.547701+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.